The 108-foot wave

Perhaps you’ve seen the story of what might be the largest wave ever surfed (the news media are calling it the largest wave ever, but of course that’s not true.)

It got me thinking about all the waves we’re dealing with in higher education: Shrinking enrollments, structural budget deficits at even some of the highly-resourced institutions, and news of a second demographic cliff coming in ten or fifteen years (take your pick). These are all things we see because we’re in the middle of them, and sometimes, we have a chance to see them coming from far off. I’ve often said that if a baby wasn’t born 18 years ago, they aren’t enrolling in college this year.

But there is another wave we’ve been riding without even knowing it, and like the literal wave last week, it’s not clear that anyone predicted it. It’s this: We are no longer in control of anything.

When I started in admission in 1983, colleges were pretty much in control of everything. If a student wanted information, they had to call you, or write you, or stop in the office, or fill out a card at a college fair. There were a few compilation books like Barron’s, but for the most part, the messages students received about us was from us. We were in control. (I do remember one incident in the late 1980s where a student cancelled a campus tour based on what the cab driver on the airport said about the university where I was working, but the fact that a single incident like that stands out in my memory might only prove the point.)

Now, your message is just one of many, and often, it might be the one students believe the least. The tour of campus someone filmed and uploaded to YouTube; the anonymous comment someone leaves in response to a question on College Confidential; the opinion of the political blogger who has never set foot on your campus; or the reported who talks to four students and decides everyone wants to go south for college can influence your markets in ways we only wish we could.

So what do you do? Change your thinking, and especially, talk to your 50-year-old-and-above trustees who only remember the days before the wave. The easy solutions of the past, like hiring a design agency to re-conceptualize your printed material, won’t cut it any more.

The wave is here, and you can ride it or get wiped out by it. It’s your choice.


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