If you’re confused by the headline, so am I. I don’t speak Russian, but I remember this from a speech given by Ronald Reagan, when he quoted a Russian proverb in a speech about nuclear disarmament. Translated, the title means, “Trust, but Verify.”

Fortunately, our purpose today is a little less compelling. But it does carry a lesson for people who are in charge of enrollment, or who depend on it to run their university.

You no doubt have heard that the great migration of college students has started. It’s in the media everywhere: Students are fleeing the “woke” states of the Northeast and Midwest to attend college in the South and Southeastern states. You’ve heard the reasons too: Weather, politics, traditional roles of men and women, and football. And you may even have been tempted to take some strategic steps to respond.

 доверяй, но проверяй, is what I’d tell you. Often, these stories are based on an anecdote, or a conversation heard at a party, or worse yet, a real trend at one school that gets generalized to every school everywhere. Trust. Verify.

Fortunately, IPEDs data from 2023 was just released, as was fresh WICHE data about public high school graduates. They tell a different story. While enrollment in the Southeast states (Florida, Georgia, North Carolina, South Carolina, and Virginia) has increased since 2011, enrollment at the South Central States (Alabama, Arkansas, Kentucky, Louisiana, Mississippi, Tennessee and West Virginia) has decreased over that time. But here’s the real kicker:

They’ve increased less than the change in high school graduates. Even at the big football schools. (Right click and choose “Open Image in New Tab” to view full size.)

Of course, it’s mathematically possible that this is because everyone from the frozen tundra is flocking to the south, while everyone from the south goes elsewhere or skips college completely, but that’s highly unlikely.

And while the stories you’ve heard are probably about Fall, 2024, you can trust me when I say the American higher education ecosystem is so large that it changes very slowly over time. If you don’t believe me, take a look at the inter-regional patterns of migration among first-year students in 2002 (on the top) and 2022 (bottom). This twenty-year snapshot might be enough to change your mind.

So, trust, but verify. Or you’ll have faculty, trustees, and alumni asking you what you’re doing to stem the tide.