I came across some data compiled by University of Tennessee professor Robert Kelchen, and found it quite compelling, precisely because it doesn’t conform to our biases. It’s a simple set and a small table, but I immediately found a dozen ways to look at it. One is included below.

It shows enrollment growth over ten years down the y-axis, crossed against the number of years in the last ten with an operating loss, as reported to IPEDS. The intersection of the two variables shows the number of four-year, private colleges residing there. For instance, in the top left corner, the grid shows 18 institutions with zero years of operating deficits, combined with enrollment growth of 45% or more. That 18 is about 2% of the 937 colleges represented here. That’s not too surprising.

But look at the purple squares, showing the largest cells on the table. Almost all of them show meaningful enrollment declines over the past ten years, but they also show relatively fewer operating losses than you might expect, especially the 52 with at least 10% decline and only two years of losses. I found that surprising, especially when you move up and see many colleges with reasonable growth also showed two, three, or four years of losses.

(click for a larger view).

Maybe the uber lesson here is that managing the budget and producing good results is not just a function of getting bigger. Or maybe it’s that 22% of these colleges lost between 10% and 25% of enrollment in the past decade, yet show up all across the range of operating performance. Or, perhaps, it’s that context is important: Harvard and Princeton are different than Transylvania and Trinity. As always, context matters.

I published this visualization, and would be happy to send a link to the interactive view with this and four other dashboards. Just go to the website and fill out the form, and I’ll be happy to share with you. If it’s faster to email directly, you can do that, too. There is no cost or obligation, and I promise I won’t bother you with sales solicitations.