I made an appearance in this article in the New York Times today, written by Ron Lieber, a journalist I’ve known and liked for a while, and talked to several times over the years. That’s a gift link, but I’m not sure how long it will work.

Anyway, I got an email from Ron last week asking if I’d heard about Syracuse. I felt confident in responding yes, whether he meant the university in New York, or the city in Greece. But I knew, of course, that he was talking about their post-May 1 Blitzkrieg to increase fall enrollment. And frankly, I thought it was a little funny he was even asking, because it’s like asking a baseball fan if they’ve heard of Babe Ruth. Everyone in my profession has heard about, and is talking about, Syracuse.

Just this week, one person concerned about their own enrollment said to me, “We got Syracused.” It’s already become a verb.

A couple of observations: First, I don’t agree with Ron’s recommendations here, about smoking out the best deal possible by waiting until the last minute. That last second at 11:59:59 pm on May 1 is a Rubicon of sorts; if you wait until 12:00:01 am on May 2, you may be shut out of the school you were playing chicken with; I know lots of institutions that made their class on May 1 (or at least we think we made our class, but with the potential for more Syracuses, the proliferation of multiple deposits–the record this year seems to be six–and the potential evaporation of international enrollment, no one is 100% sure of anything right now.) In fact, you could be shut out of all of the ones you’d been admitted to; no one is making big offers before May 1, and the ones after May 1 may come from institutions on the bottom of your list, or may not come at all.

Clearly, the idea of asking for more aid is not new, and as long as 40 years ago, I’d seen wheeler-dealer parents writing a letter to the president saying, “We’re willing to pay this much; what can you do for my child?”

Second, as I mentioned to Ron, while I was sure Syracuse was doing what it thought was in its best interest, I did wonder about both short- and long-term effects of this strategy, realizing it can go both ways: What is stopping the one-in-five families who get zero aid (including currently enrolled students, as well as newly arriving ones) from threatening to walk unless they, too, get a nice discount?

Third, it strikes me that the long game is potentially even more frightening for Syracuse: Who is going to take their initial offer seriously next year? What is the net present value of these short-term decisions? What is the effect on brand, reputation, and market position? And before you mention it (because, yes, I’ve thought of it), what if applications explode next year from bargain hunters? How do you measure genuine interest, how do you know whom to admit, how do you predict yield, and how do you figure out May 1 in the utter chaos your good fortune brings?

Remember, Syracuse is a place that has seemed to have a focus on the trappings of prestige, to the point of railing against a chancellor who expanded access and diversity.

We’ll see. As I’ve said and written hundreds of times, enrollment is complicated, and so many elements that are unseen and unheard and not understood go into every decision like this that you make, that sometimes I do wonder if it isn’t all a crapshoot, with us thinking we can load the dice.

The uber-lesson here, of course, is that the market is more powerful than you are, and when the market tries to teach you a lesson, you’d be well-advised to listen. Tune in next year to see who had their ears