I have a friend. We’ve been great pals since the second day of first grade. He has a son who is going through the admissions process this year as a high school senior, and his grandparents really want him to go to Purdue. But the word on the street or in the school is that “Purdue has stopped admitting students from out-of-state this year.” He texted me this morning to see if it was true.

I found it hard to believe, so I contacted a colleague at Purdue, who replied that, no, in fact, the rumor was not true. But it was also mentioned that Purdue has received over 80,000 applications this year. Purdue has become hot, something that happens in our business for no real discernible reason from time-to-time.

So that got me thinking and remembering.

A colleague predicted tough times ahead for my institution as the PAC12 disintegrated. “You’ll lose all that TV exposure in your key markets, just like Kansas and Kansas State did.” I indicated I had no idea what he was talking about. So he mentioned to me that KU and KSU were pummeled in the enrollment area in Missouri when Mizzou left the Big 12 back in the day; they weren’t on TV in Missouri any more, and it was disastrous for them.

I didn’t remember that happening, and I don’t know many teenagers who watch any TV anymore (and football watchers would be a subset of that group) so I was puzzled, but in my years, I’ve learned that sometimes the most unbelievable things are true. (Check that: I’ve known that fact for a long time, but in recent years I’ve come to realize that I should hold off on pronouncing people wrong too quickly.)

Fortunately, I like to let the data do the talking these days, and so I went to the IPEDS first-year student migration file I keep on my desktop. Mizzou left the Big 12 in 2012. Here is the composition of the KU freshman class in 2010 and a dozen years later, in 2022. (Click the images for a larger view).

And here is Kansas State over that same time period.

As you can see, not only did enrollment from Missouri not implode, it grew, both in numbers and as a percentage of the class at both institutions, doubling at KU and almost doubling at KSU. Of course, I’m not privy to the behind the scenes strategy discussions that went on at either place, but this would suggest that football (or big time athletics) is not the driver some people might think it is.

So, you’re wondering: What does this have to do with Purdue or your friend? Take a look at the final Big 10 football standings this year. Consider their 80,000 applications this year. And realize that in 2010, Purdue received about 30,000 apps.

You will hear from lots of people how important sports is to your institutional health. Most of them will be big sports fans. Similarly, you’ll hear from faculty about how 17-year-olds will be attracted because of the number of peer-reviewed papers they publish. And you’ll hear from vendors who sell online communities how important online communities are to your enrollment success.

Are they right? Maybe, at least a little, they all are. Lots of things attract students. Few of them are the sole reason.

I have said frequently that these things are a lot like the New York Times Crossword: They have generally narrow appeal to a certain group of people, but those people are really dedicated, and often, quite vocal and certain that others share their opinion.

But there is no magic bullet in enrollment management. If you’re going to place big bets, you should at least know what the odds of success are, and–especially–whether conventional wisdom is all it’s cracked up to be.

Addendum, February 2: I got a reasonable question from someone who suggested the growth in Missouri enrollment at KSU and UK might be because the University of Missouri became much more popular after it moved to the new football conference, and thus more selective. So I looked.

Applications did take a big jump from 2010 to 2012 (+13%) but against a national backdrop, have been relatively stagnant since then, up about 5% in a decade. Nationally, public, very high research universities in America saw an increase of just over 100% in that same time.

During that same period (2012 to 2023) first-year applications to The University of Kansas increased 91%, and Kansas State saw a 63% increase.

Good questions!